Patternicity, Causality and Distress: Why we make mistakes in stressful times

Have you ever come away from a critical negotiation, presentation, meeting or interview wondering – “why on earth did I say that?” Not only are you not alone, you may even be in elite company.

“We care about the small people,” said Carl Svanberg, the chairman of BP. While the comment has become a source of feeding frenzy for global news media and blogosphere (most of it tainted with schadenfreude); the question that really needs to be answered is “under what circumstances would an articulate, charismatic & proven business leader come across as ineffective, insensitive and gaff prone?”

The answer may be in how we evolved, the limitations of the tools we use to make sense of our world, and what happens to us under stress.

Making Sense of the world around us

Face on Mars

Human ability to sense patterns in our immediate environment was vital during the course of our evolution. If you were an early hominid, and you heard rustling in the grass, you had to make an immediate decision – was it the wind, or is it a tiger? If you made the wrong choice you would become lunch. But we are not so good at detecting the difference in false and true patterns. We must be aware of Patternicity – when we see meaningful patterns in meaningless random noise e.g. face on mars, Virgin Mary on a grilled cheese sandwich etc.   

Our cognitive limitations

Patternicity results in two kinds of errors; type I error, false positive, when you assume that there is something and it is not there (in our example you assume that it is a tiger, but it turns out to be the wind); and type II error, false negative, when you assume that something is not there and it is there (you assume that there is no tiger, but it is a tiger and you end up as lunch).

We have evolved to make type I errors – it is better to be safe than sorry. Type I error takes less mental effort. For type II errors the brain has to consider a wide range of possibilities, sort and qualify evidence – it is expensive in terms of time, effort and intellect. But the type II errors, when made, are far more disastrous.

Limited information

But many a times we do not have enough information to understand and explain these patterns. In such circumstances we try and come up with our own view of what is causing these patterns. Whenever we receive information or stimuli, our brain tries to make sense of it e.g.  when the wearers of the God Helmet (see my earlier post) perceived stimuli in a sensory deprived environment  they thought that they were in the presence of angels or Gollum, depending upon their view of life. This is also the reason that in the absence of enough information we begin to imagine scenarios and situations (many of them are, sadly, far from the truth), mostly ones that could lead to negative outcomes – we start to create our own type I errors, imagining that there is a tiger when it is only the wind. (I suspect this is also the reason people quit perfectly good careers, leave good marriages and relationships, or commit suicide). It also increases type II errors as we ignore the real world for the imaginary – burying our heads in the sand e.g. not being aware of politics at work.

In face of crisis – lessons from neuroscience

Perception of patterns occurs in the right hemisphere of the brain (this is why the left handed people tend to be far more creative) and is influenced by levels of dopamine (higher levels of dopamine increases the ability to see patterns), and the analysis to weed out errors in these patterns takes place in the prefrontal cortex (PFC).But when we are angry, upset, anxious, distressed or depressed our dopamine levels fall – reducing our ability to see patterns and the capacity to sense errors move to the primitive brain. Along with the decreased ability to sense the patterns, there is an increase in the meaningless patterns – we start making up information and scenarios that are not totally based on reality, accompanied by potentially disastrous results.

Hardwired to err?

Are we doomed to commit errors? No, not really!! Mankind has been looking at various ways to deal with and reduce stress. This may take the form of recreation, sport, music, meditation, gratitude, compassion and prayer. This is validated by Neuroscientists Dr Andrew Newburg and Mark Waldman who, in their book How God Changes Your Brain: Breakthrough Findings from a Leading Neuroscientist, have found that belief in God (any kind) reduces your stress, thus improving the way you deal with crisis and stressful situations.

Considering the facts that BP had caused, and was unable to fix, one the greatest environmental disasters, there was poor insight into the decision making a four hour grilling by the most powerful man on earth, it is easy to see how Carl Svanberg   an “articulate and charismatic” proven leader could turn into a wooden, error prone, bumbling individual with “lower-profile than an agoraphobic prairie dog.”

We will continue to face such situations on a daily basis, more so when we are anxious – when someone does not get back to us on time about a business deal; when someone fails to turn up to an appointment; your partner is spending too much time at work etc. Whenever you are faced with such a situation, remember that these situations are not in your in control; combined with very little information (some of it manufactured by your anxious and overactive brain) it can be easy to jump to the wrong conclusion.

 What can we do to avoid such situations?  Avoid getting distressed, try exercising, meditation, praying, or surrounding yourself with people who you can trust in a crisis, and most importantly don’t let problems turn to crises, especially by imagining things that haven’t happened.

Dying to be saved….an economics of life and afterlife?

“Jesus died for us, so we will die for Dudus,” read one placard before the security forces moved into Tivoli Gardens.

Imagine my surprise – Chirstopher “Dudus” Coke, was no religious leader or messiah for a fringe cult. He is a Jamaican narcotics kingpin. According to the US state department, he is “one of the world’s most dangerous narcotics kingpins”.

While we immediately think of Islamic suicide bombers, it is important to note that people have always been ready to die for their cause. One also assumes that this practice is confined to fringe cults like the Branch Davidians “followers of David Koresh”. This practice is universal and can be seen among the Japanese Kamikaze; Vietcong in Vietnam; the Sikh martyrdom to protect the rights of the downtrodden; the self immolation by Buddhist monks, and so on.

The traditional explanations of the practice are grounded in religious extremism and social networks. But this does not explain why someone would want to lay down their life for a narcotics kingpin. Could the answer be found in economics of the now and the afterlife – using an institutional approach? Is there is a similarity between the two institutions – the religious institutions and narcotics institutions. There could be – it seems that they make look our current life look worse than it is.

Hell today, Heaven tomorrow?

Almost all religions promise a paradise, a place that is the opposite of the current human condition. This is a place of freedom from chaos and fear – a place of certainty; freedom from hunger – plentiful supply of variety of foods; freedom from sickness, pain and suffering – eternal health and beauty; freedom from rejection – beautiful virgins etc.

Not only does paradise promise deliverance from the all the current miseries – it also makes our current condition, through comparison with paradise, look even more miserable and worthless.

 This is also true for narcotics gang lords. By bringing some semblance of order and safety to the lives of ordinary people, organisations like Dudus Coke of Jamaica and La Familia Michoacana of Mexico make the governments of badly run and corrupt countries like Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Sudan look even worse.

The two institutions seem similar in their ability to make us abhor our current situation. The difference being that one seems to be offering deliverance here and now, while the other wants its followers to wait for the afterlife.